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Download Energy to 2050 : scenarios for a sustainable future by Maria Rosa Virdis; International Energy Agency PDF

By Maria Rosa Virdis; International Energy Agency

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Some of these scenarios are very optimistic about the natural capability of free markets to achieve all these goals without much regulatory intervention. Others like GEOpolity of WBCSD and Policy Reform, on the other hand, are scenarios driven by policy intervention carried out for the public and environmental good by national and supranational government entities and are characterised by moderate growth. The recurrence of some of these images of the future is intriguing. It is not clear how much of this is due to the fact that certain development paths are clearly visible from our specific point of observation in time or whether there is some sort of imitation effect among scenario builders.

30 1. Long Term Energy and Environment Scenarios: the Literature The drivers that shape the present situation are separated into two categories: "proximate" drivers and "ultimate" drivers. , 1998). , 1998). Ultimate drivers are the factors chosen to give the basic characterisation to the GSG scenarios, while the proximate drivers are the ones more easily translated in illustrative parameters. As mentioned, the GSG develops six scenarios, categorised within a twotiered hierarchy of classes, based on fundamentally different social visions, and variants, reflecting different possible outcome within each class.

The recurrence of some of these images of the future is intriguing. It is not clear how much of this is due to the fact that certain development paths are clearly visible from our specific point of observation in time or whether there is some sort of imitation effect among scenario builders. It is also interesting to note that most of the pessimistic or catastrophic scenarios are often less fully developed than the more optimistic ones. This, however, does not reduce the relevance of this type of scenario.

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