By CMR of Xiamen University
This ebook is a quarterly forecast and research document at the chinese language economic system. it really is released two times a yr and provides ongoing consequence from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic version (CQMM),” a examine venture on the heart for Macroeconomic examine (CMR) at Xiamen collage. in accordance with the CQMM version, the learn workforce forecast significant macroeconomic symptoms for the subsequent eight quarters, together with the speed of GDP progress, the CPI, fixed-asset funding, resident intake and overseas exchange. while it specializes in simulation of present macroeconomic rules in China. as well as supporting readers comprehend China’s financial pattern and coverage consultant, this e-book has 3 major ambitions: to aid readers comprehend China’s monetary functionality; to forecast the most macroeconomic symptoms for the following eight quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.
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Extra resources for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, September 2014
67 %, the employment would have decreased slightly for about 167,000 persons for each year. In addition, the negative effect of lower growth rate would have been more insignificant if the expansion of the service sector had been considered. 2 % in the next 2 years, will not affect the employment significantly. 4 Third, a lower growth rate will also help to reduce the government debt. 1 % during the 13th five-year-plan, the government debt5 will decrease about two trillion RMB in this next 5 years.
With regard to the fiscal measures China might take in the second half of 2014, 77 % of experts believed that China’s government might moderately boost investment in new project and promote spending on infrastructure; 73 % claimed that China’s government might implement preferential tax policies for small enterprises with low profits and carry out the fiscal and taxation policy which would promote the development of service consumption and enterprise innovation; 73 % thought China’s government would continue to control “the three public expenses” and other general public spending; 70 % claimed that it would revitalize the stock of fiscal funds and increase the expenditure in people’s livelihood security sector; 53 % answered that it might implement pilot programs to replace the business tax with VAT in more sectors and promote reform experiments in areas such as finance, telecommunications and postal service; 51 % claimed that it would build a finance 48 6 A Survey of Chinese Economists on China’s… mechanism for local government to borrow money, standardize the financing behavior, and establish a pre-warning system for debt risk; 38 % argued that it might increase the scale and proportion of general transfer payments and standardize the special transfer payments.
With the economic structural being adjusted, the potential growth rate will be higher, and the space for future growth will be larger. In conclusion, the central government should give up the super high economic growth target, since the external economic growth is unlikely to pick up in the near future and the domestic economic system is yet to be further reformed and the growth pattern is yet to be changed. In our opinion, in the post crisis era, the central government should adapt to the economy of “new normal”, take advantage of the situation, set a lower and reasonable growth rate target and lay a sound foundation for future growth.