By Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University (auth.)
This publication is a quarterly forecast and research file at the chinese language financial system. it really is released two times a yr and offers ongoing effects from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic version (CQMM),” a learn undertaking on the heart for Macroeconomic study (CMR) at Xiamen collage. in line with the CQMM version, the learn staff forecast significant macroeconomic signs for the following eight quarters, together with the speed of GDP progress, the CPI, fixed-asset funding, resident intake and overseas exchange. while it makes a speciality of simulation of present macroeconomic guidelines in China. as well as aiding readers comprehend China’s financial pattern and coverage consultant, this ebook has 3 major targets: to assist readers comprehend China’s fiscal functionality; to forecast the most macroeconomic signs for the following eight quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.
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Additional info for China’s Macroeconomic Outlook : Quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report, February 2016
The continual drop in PPI has already imposed the following negative macroeconomic effects: 1. Continued decline in manufacturing industry profit12; 2. Reduced fiscal revenue growth directly related to manufacturing industry profit; 3. Widened expansionary development gap between districts; 10 Measured by team. Mainly because of the lack of effective disposal measures for state-owned “zombie” enterprises. 6 percentage points from the previous year. 11 18 1 A Review of China’s Economy in 2015 4.
Continuously declining PPI severely restricted the growth of industry profits and fiscal revenue. Meanwhile, growth in several provinces that rely on natural resources has slowed sharply, which could cause even wider economic and social gaps between districts. Moreover, enterprises could face heavier real burdens. Cuts of overcapacity mean that the reemployment of the unemployed and the debt disposal of bankrupt corporations will need to be urgently dealt with. To solve these problems, we believe that we should play a balanced game between supply and demand and that issues related to the amount and the structure should be given attention.
5). Overall, China’s economic growth will continue to decline under the pressure of the investment slowdown over the next 2 years, but the decline will slow. Economic growth is expected to gradually stabilize, and the risk of overall deflation is relatively small. 25 percentage points lower than that in 2015. 48 %. 09 %. 08 percentage points lower than that in 2016, and economic growth is expected to gradually stabilize. 26 %. 1 Export, Import, and Reserve Growth 31 Although the IMF predicts that global trade in goods and services over the next 2 years will experience restorative growth, uncertainty about the main economic growth and capital market risk remains high.