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Download Avoiding Surprise in an Era of Global Technology Advances by National Research Council, Division on Engineering and PDF

By National Research Council, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, Committee on Defense Intelligence Agency Technology Forecasts and Reviews

The worldwide unfold of technological know-how and expertise services and the growing to be advertisement entry to complex applied sciences with attainable army software are growing in all probability critical threats to the technological superiority underpinning U.S. army energy. Key to facing this example is the facility of the U.S. intelligence group on the way to offer sufficient and potent caution of evolving, severe applied sciences. to help in appearing this job, the expertise caution department of the protection Intelligence employer (DIA) requested the nationwide learn Council (NRC) to adopt a examine analyzing know-how caution matters. This file presents the 1st a part of that learn. It provides an review of serious, evolving applied sciences; postulates methods power adversaries may disrupt those applied sciences; and offers signs for the intelligence neighborhood to figure out if such equipment are less than improvement. The goal of this record is to set up the root for a long term dating with the know-how caution neighborhood to aid the exam of expertise caution matters.

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More than 225 readers responded to the survey; in a separate question, nearly 60 percent of the respondents revealed that they had some involvement in the technologies that they selected (Studt, 2005). While derived from disparate sources, these lists of important technologies (as well as other lists shown to the committee) bear remarkable similarities in terms of the underlying technological foundations. S. military’s operational capabilities. The committee’s framework and methodology are discussed in Chapter 2 of this report.

S. S. military capability? What are the observables that may indicate adversarial adoption or exploitation of such technologies? • Assess Accessibility: How difficult would it be for an adversary to exploit the technology? Maturity: How much is known about an adversary’s intentions to exploit the technology? S. military capability should the technology be employed by an adversary? • Prioritize Identify: What are the relative resources to be applied to each emerging technology to support the technology warning process?

FOUNDATION OF THE METHODOLOGY The committee believes that the Technology Warning Division can most effectively prioritize its limited resources by utilizing a capabilities-based approach with respect to assessing technologies. The landscape of potentially important emerging technologies is both vast and diverse. Ideally, the division should assess whether a given technology has the potential to pose a viable threat prior to commissioning in-depth analyses. S. forces, a functional decomposition from an adversarial, or RED, perspective is most useful.

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