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Additional info for A Flow-of-Funds Perspective on the Financial Crisis: Volume II: Macroeconomic Imbalances and Risks to Financial Stability
7. This contrasts with the ﬁnding by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001) that assets rather than consumption adjust to the deviation of log consumption from a linear combination of log income and log net worth. 3. 8. Permanent income is deﬁned over a ten-year horizon using a 5 per cent per quarter, (approximately) 20 per cent per annum discount rate to discount future income. Such high discount rates are justiﬁed by microeconomic evidence; see, for example, Hausman (1979). Log permanent income is modelled relative to log current income using trend reversion, a Michigan Survey measure of income expectations and the change in the T-bill rate to capture short-term monetary policy.
In a two-equation variant of the system, Duca et al. (2012a) use the Kalman ﬁlter to extract HLI as a stochastic trend in a state space model for consumption and the mortgage reﬁnancing rate. The reﬁnancing share Reﬁ is the per cent share of GSE-securitised mortgages reﬁnanced in one quarter, which peaked at 6 per cent in 2003Q3, when rates on new mortgages hit a record low relative to the average rate on outstanding ﬁxed rate loans. 5) where HLI is the common factor and F(X) contains a constant and economic factors affecting the incentives to reﬁnance.
11 12 John Duca and John Muellbauer ﬂow-of-funds analysis; see, for example, the important paper by Backus and Purvis (1980). However, in the 1970s and throughout much of the 1980s, monetarism, by focusing on the link between the money supply and inﬂation, offered a simpler and deceptively elegant view which crowded out the more complex portfolio balance view of Tobin, Brainard, Backus and Purvis. The former view had the simplicity of a reduced-form approach, while the latter required a more structural approach, as it entailed modelling portfolio choices across a wider range of assets relevant for savings behaviour and real–ﬁnancial linkages.